Political Upset Brewing in Wisconsin

Four big concerns are shifting voters to the right in Wisconsin and the Midwest

By Wilson Kasischke, ‘25

The outcome for this November’s tightly contested Wisconsin gubernatorial race could be a key indicator for how national elections will pan out in Wisconsin and the Midwest as a whole.

A recent CBS YouGov poll shows that incumbent Governor Tony Evers (D) and challenger Tim Michels (R) are running dead even at 50% each. Likeability arose as one of many subjects in the poll. Fifty-three percent of voters like how Evers carries himself whereas only 43% like how Michels carries himself. Despite his likability disadvantage, I believe Tim Michels will win the governorship because he benefits from Wisconsinites’ biggest concerns, the polling trends, and one key endorsement. 

Wisconsinites have four big concerns going into the midterm elections according to the same YouGov poll: inflation, crime, election integrity, and public-school education. 

Michels’ platform directly addresses each voter concern. Evers addresses inflation, but mostly changes the subject on the other issues, giving Michels an advantage. Because inflation is a national issue, and concern about election integrity currently tends to be a conservative issue, crime and education remain as the issues with which Michels can sway undecided or moderate voters.

To solve rising crime in Wisconsin, Michels’ solutions are to send 50% more police to the “most dangerous neighborhoods” and to get “tough” on “defund the police” by enacting a 1.5x state aid penalty to those neighborhoods that do not increase law enforcement budgets. His proposed actions directly address crime by supporting police and increasing the number of police in areas that need them. Evers, however, addresses crime only indirectly by advocating for gun reform and mental health treatment.

On education, Michels proposes a Parental Bill of Rights to put parents “first” in their child’s education and a voucher system supporting school choice. He claims these programs introduce competition and provide incentives for the schools to improve. Evers’ solution to improve schools is to pour money into educational programs. His proposal is indirect and does not offer a clear explanation to parents about how the money will affect their children. By directly addressing these key issues, Michels will appeal to independent and moderate voters.

Over the last month of polling, Michels went from a projected 2.7 points behind Evers to practically polling even with him. This positive trend for Michels indicates growing support and momentum for him as the election approaches.

On the contrary, Evers’ polling has remained steady at around 47 to 48 percent over the past two to three months, showing stagnation in his support. He will likely struggle to gain any more support in the next few weeks.

Additionally, independent candidate Joan Ellis Beglinger recently withdrew from the gubernatorial race and endorsed both Tim Michels and Ron Johnson (who is running for U.S. Senate). In earlier polls, she drew anywhere from 3 to 7 percent of the vote, but her endorsement for Michels has not shown its effect in the polls that still show her drawing 3 percent of the vote away from the other candidates. Given her endorsement, the remaining 3 percent will likely go to Michels. The most recent YouGov poll shows a 50/50 tie, suggesting the shift is already underway. 

The concerns that Wisconsinites have – crime and education – are nationwide issues. The fact that Beglinger’s votes are going to Michels shows that Republicans are already gaining support from independents based on their solutions to these issues. If Republicans gain similar support across the country from independents, there could be a broader Republican victory possible in national elections. 

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