The State of the Midterms

Despite issues of candidate quality, Republicans have several opportunities for major gains

By Evan Cecchini ‘25

With a faltering president and a majority in both chambers of Congress, the majority of the American people are not happy with the direction this country is moving under the Democrats' control. Recent polling data support this sentiment, with Joe Biden at a 42% approval rating and Republicans leading the generic ballot by 3 points.

Therefore, the GOP is primed to take control of both chambers, possibly mirroring the massive gains the party experienced in 2010 and 2014, halfway through each of Barack Obama’s two terms.

Polling website FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 4 in 5 chance to take back the House, and a 1 in 2 chance for a Senate majority, a toss-up. With that being said, let’s take a closer look at a few races that could make or break the performances of both parties.

Georgia U.S. Senate Race: Raphael Warnock (D) v. Herschel Walker (R)

Raphael Warnock shouldn’t even be in office. In an alternate universe where Donald Trump encourages Georgians to go out and vote instead of encouraging infighting that led to a stunted turnout, it is likely that Kelly Loeffler would be the incumbent.

However, that is not the case, and Republicans in Georgia have a second chance to redeem themselves in former football star Herschel Walker. In a state that has been consistently red for decades, polls have the race at a tossup, reflecting Georgia’s presumed swing state status. 

But, Walker has faced a recent barrage of allegations that have troubled his campaign, including multiple reports that he enticed women who he impregnated to have abortions. This is not exactly the best look for a pro-life candidate, whether true or false. In addition, flamboyant family issues have been made public by his son on Twitter.

Walker could certainly be performing better, but it appears that the inevitable GOP momentum on election day is propping up his chances of taking office. The real race will be on the December 6 runoff if, as data currently predicts, neither Warnock nor Walker hits the 50% vote threshold.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race: John Fetterman (D) v. Mehmet Oz (R)

Two of the more peculiar candidates are facing off in the Keystone state. John Fetterman, incumbent lieutenant governor, suit-hater, and self-proclaimed progressive, is running against Dr. Mehmet Oz, a reality television star and surgeon who is the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by a major party for the U.S. Senate.

The Fetterman campaign came out swinging after Oz was named the nominee, leading every poll by large margins. His social media interns continued to make the same joke that the doctor is indeed from New Jersey and not Pennsylvania, and it was working. However, with a Democrat already as governor and senior Senator, and comfortably voting blue in all but one presidential election since 1992, Pennsylvania is in grave danger of losing its swing state status.

It appears that the Fetterman campaign is experiencing a total meltdown toward the finish line. After Fetterman suffered a stroke in May and did not appear in public until late August, the Oz campaign made up significant ground, with cause.

Fetterman showed little ability to form a coherent sentence, let alone argue for his positions at the race’s only debate on October 25. He was unable to respond to the questions on whether he would apologize to an unarmed black man he chased with a loaded shotgun in 2013 or why he has both supported and outright condemned fracking. Recent polling shows that the hour-long debate was a total disaster for the Fetterman campaign, with Oz taking the lead for the first time. With a last-minute surge, Oz may have enough momentum to keep one Senate seat in Pennsylvania red.

Arizona U.S. Senate Race: Mark Kelly (D) v. Blake Masters (R)

Receiving significant financial backing from conservative venture capitalist Peter Thiel and the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, Masters easily won the Republican primary and now faces a formidable challenge in Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut who took the office after defeating the appointed incumbent, Martha McSally.

A plurality of Arizona residents hold a favorable view of Kelly, who appeals to many of the same voters who idolized John McCain as a supposed moderate. On the other hand, nearly 50% think unfavorably of Masters.

Kelly also outperformed Biden by a margin of 2.1% in 2020, which indicates that Republicans need a particularly strong candidate to oust the incumbent. After initially embracing the branding as an unapologetic America First conservative, it seems that the Masters campaign has moderated its stances in recent months, with Democrats picking up on the changes. Even with GOP momentum in a historically red state, the data does not look positive for Masters, who has yet to take the lead in any poll.

California’s 22nd Congressional District: Rudy Salas (D) v. David Valadao (R)

In contrast to the Senate, it is highly probable that the GOP will take a majority in the House. However, taking a look at the newly redistricted CA-22 is a good place to watch how a rare anti-Trump Republican performs in the first midterm since the 2020 election.

Incumbent David Valadao was one of the 10 House Republicans to impeach former President Trump after winning his fourth term in a district that Joe Biden carried by over 10 points. That is despite Valadao voting in line with Trump nearly 98% of the time.

Now with Valadao voting with Joe Biden only 26% of the time and facing a tossup election against Democratic State Assemblyman Rudy Sales, this race with little reputable polling will show whether the anti-Trump caucus in the House has any viability in winning at all this year. The first races of 2022 would suggest otherwise, especially after the abysmal primary loss of incumbent Liz Cheney to pro-Trump Harriet Hageman this August.

BONUS: Oregon Gubernatorial Race, Tina Kotek (D) v. Christine Drazan (R)

Although a state-level race, the idea that a Republican could take the governor’s office in one of the most liberal states in America was unfathomable a few years ago. Christine Drazan is looking to change that.

With term-limited Democratic incumbent Kate Brown established as the most unpopular governor in the country, public sentiment for close party ally and gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek appears to not be any different. 

Further complicating the race for Kotek is Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat turned independent. After spending nearly $900,000 to gather enough signatures to appear on the ballot, Johnson’s polling average is at 13.5%, enough to keep either of the major party candidates from a 50% majority.

A recent Trafalgar Group poll has Drazan leading Kotek by 1.3 points, within the margin of error (2.9%). With help from the possible third-party spoiler, the confident and savvy Drazan has the best chance to become the first Republican governor in the state since 1982.

The opinions expressed in this magazine are the author's own and do not reflect the official policy or position of The Spectator, or any students or other contributors associated with the magazine. It is the intention of The Spectator to promote student thought and civil discourse, and it is our hope to maintain that civility in all discussions.