Author Speaks on Middle Eastern Regimes
Robert Kaplan promoted his latest book on empire and analyzed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Best-selling author Robert Kaplan discussed Middle Eastern politics in a Wednesday, November 8 campus talk. He warned against Western democratization and analyzed the political backdrop of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Approximately 75 people attended the talk, titled “Between Empire and Anarchy from the Mediterranean to China.” Kaplan came to discuss his latest book, The Loom of Time. There was no recording or livestream of the event, which was held in Lee Chapel, National Historic Landmark.

After a brief introduction by Professor Mark Rush, Kaplan delivered a 35-minute talk followed by a question-and-answer segment and book signing.

Much like in The Loom of Time, Kaplan makes “a case for realism as an approach to the Greater Middle East.” His first-hand experience abroad and study of classical civilizations has led him to believe that Western pressures to democratize immediately after the fall of a Middle Eastern regime are unrealistic and even dangerous.

Though Israel is excluded from his book, he still discussed the current conflict in the conclusion of his talk.

Kaplan argued that viewing authoritarianism as the antithesis of democracy is a western-centric view that ignores “a continuum of gray shades.” He instead presented an empire-versus-anarchy dichotomy, as the talk’s title suggests.

Kaplan suggested that not all dictators are bad. As a case-in-point, he compared Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew to North Korea’s Kim Jung-Un, both dictators, but with starkly different reputations. Lee Kuan Yew is known for building Singapore into one of the world’s most sophisticated economies.

Kaplan claimed that Britain took 700 years after the Magna Carta to achieve what he considers a real democracy. “History is not linear,” Kaplan said. According to Kaplan, the Middle East should not be judged based on Western perspectives.

Returning to the empire-versus-anarchy dichotomy, Kaplan said that the more an empire controls its constituents’ lives, the more anarchy will ensue once that empire falls; in the midst of that anarchy, it is unrealistic to demand immediate democracy.

Sometimes, Kaplan suggested, people need absolute leadership. As evidence, he listed several failed democratic states, such as the increasingly unstable Tunisian democracy.

Kaplan said that “the Middle East has not found a solution to the fall of the Ottoman Empire.” He admitted this was an exaggeration, but added that the area is now in a “post-imperial phase.”

Confident that Egypt and Saudi Arabia are secretly hoping for Israeli victory, he claimed that their pro-Palestinian comments in the media are “virtue signaling.”

The speaker refused to predict the ultimate outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and believed that nobody could. He did, however, predict further “urban combat” and “tunnel warfare” in the days ahead.

He also stated that the Israeli military is testing how their recent incursions into Gaza might push the limits of Iranian neutrality.

Tension rose during the Q&A session, when a Palestinian student chided Kaplan for his “obsession” with empires and the October 7 attack. The student further alleged that Kaplan overlooked past attacks on Palestine in his analysis. Kaplan defended himself by stating that he only had 35 minutes to speak.